Vikram Sekar/High Stakes Advanced Node Poker: TSMC Goes All-in, Intel Folds

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High Stakes Advanced Node Poker: TSMC Goes All-in, Intel Folds

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The most recent earnings calls from the world's leading-edge foundries could not be more divergent. TSMC is laying down a massive, multi-year capital expenditure bet, signaling an undeniable conviction in the long-term, non-cyclical demand for AI chips. Meanwhile, Intel faces significant hurdles in manufacturing and inventory management.

Contents

  • TMSC vs Intel Advanced Nodes: The extreme demand for N2 from both mobile and AI, N3 oversubscription, N5 lingering demand, and outlook for A16/A14 from mobile and HPC. Intel 18A demand, and uncertain future of 14A.

  • Advanced Packaging Dynamics: CoWoS shortage and increasing demand, TSMC repurposing facilities, rise of alternative advanced packaging solutions, and Intel EMIB as a diamond in the rough.

  • Server CPU demand for Agentic AI: Intel’s $11B CPU fumble, AMD silicon fungibility, and Intel’s questionable architecture choices.

High-Stakes-Advanced-Node-Poker-TSMC-Goes-All-in-Intel-Folds.zip
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